Among U.S. recession and the collapse

Carlos Mora Vanegas

Everything is possible in the great economic scenarios, where powerful countries like the United States faces serious economic crisis that has been affected in recent years. Of course, we do not want to get into it in esoteric and point out that by law cause and effect, karmic law is facing product probably its last actions, spatially war as soundly as the Iraq war, the threats to Iran, Afghanistan, and other country.

It has been said that the fundamental problem is the uneven development of global economy, developed countries live in their own economies and what they can sell to countries with comparative advantages in the third world, maintaining their own economies generate external economies formula has been the gold standard for the progress of the capital, but forgets that the world must also generate external economies globally if you want to break the deadlock, and the energy variable is the solution to address moments of crisis as we live , the vehicle is only one earth and we can not lose pasajeros.una responsible environmental behavior is vital to move forward all.

Indeed, as George says Beinstein, the recession has been installed in the United States, food subsidies covering about 26 ½ million people in 2006 rose in 2007 to 28 million, the lowest level ever since the 1960's. Recently the OECD has revised downward its growth forecasts for the U.S. economy expanded by assigning a zero for the first half of this year, for its part, the IMF has just done an even worse prognosis including periods of negative growth. These organizations came bombing the media (which in turn bombard the planet) with optimistic forecasts based on the supposed strength of the U.S. economy, argued that there would be the worst recession and low growth could be quickly overwhelmed by a new expansion ... If the recession is now admitting that something far worse is on the horizon.

Under the guise of several converging crisis unfolds before our eyes the end of what we should look like the first chapter of the decline of the American empire (about 2001-2007) and the beginning of a turbulent process triggered by the negative trends leap that developed over varying periods of time.

Anyway, the bad news, finance, energy and military do not seem to placate Washington messianic delusions, but on the contrary, it is as if Bush and his hawks are not to leave the White House within a few months. Continue to threaten governments not submit to their whims, suggest new wars and say they want to prolong indefinitely the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, including a devastating attack on Iran still possible. From time to emerge a new wave of rumors pointing toward Iran war usually arising from statements or transcended by senior officials of government, an attack on that country would have disastrous immediate consequences for the global economy, oil prices would soar to the clouds, the global financial system would become a chaotic situation and the recession became ultra imperial recession led by a falling dollar. Perhaps some strategists in the Pentagon and most radical hawks circle are imagining a world-wide purifying fire that would emerge victorious by God's chosen nation, the United States of America. This is crazy but is part of the psychological makeup of a major portion of the ruling elite lethal traversed by a stream that combines virtual omnipotence, despair and anger at a less docile reality every day.

In his interesting article on this topic, Beinstein adds that the word "collapse" was appearing with increasing intensity since late last year in interviews and newspaper articles often combined with other expressions no less terrible, in some cases adopting its most popular (collapse, death, catastrophic collapse) and other rigorous form, ie as a succession of serious irreversible damage systems, such as general decline. Paul Craig Roberts (who was once a member of the executive staff of the Department of the Treasury of the United States and publisher of Wall Street Journal) posted on March 20, a text entitled "The collapse of American power? which describes the critical features of the decline of the U.S. integral (1), the March 27 "The Economist? titled "Waiting for arnagedon? to an article referring to the irresistible tide of U.S. business bankruptcies. The March 14 "The Intelligencer? entitled "International experts foresee collapse of U.S. economy? where the opinions collected among others by Bernard Connelly AIG Bank and Martin Wolf, Financial Times columnist. On April 3 Peter Morici in a note published in "Counterpunch? noted that "there is no denying that the economy (U.S.) has entered a recession whose depth and duration are unpredictable? (2).

To conclude on April 14 Financial Times published an article by Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations of the United States which stated that "the unipolar era, a period of unprecedented American dominance is over. Drive about two decades, something more than a moment in historical terms? .

Of course, there are many factors that have led to this situation, however we stop at what is very significant, as indicated Beinstein, the mitalirización and decay state, brings about another phenomenon to consider is the long march up the Military Industrial Complex, an area of ​​convergence between government, industry and science that has been deployed since mid-1930 through Democratic and Republican administrations, real or imagined wars, global calm periods or high voltage. Some authors, including Chalmers Johnson, believe that military spending has been the dynamic center of the U.S. economy since the Second World War to the Eurasian war Bush-Cheney administration through Korea, Vietnam, Star Wars and Kosovo . According to Johnson, that defines the strategy followed in determining the past seven decades as "military Keynesianism", real military spending of fiscal 2008 would surpass the 1.1 trillion (million million) dollars, the highest since the Second World War I (7). These expenditures have been growing over the years involving thousands of businesses and millions of people, according to calculations by Rodrigue Tremblay in 2006 the Department of Defense of the United States employed 2,143,000 people.

while private contractors in the defense system used to 3,600,000 workers (5,743,000 total jobs) that must be added about 25 million veterans. In sum, the United States about 30 million people (equivalent to 20% of the economically active population) receive a direct and indirect revenues from military spending (8). The multiplier effect on the overall sector of the economy in the past enabled the prosperity of a scheme that Scott MacDonald calls "the guns and butter economy", ie a structure where the mass consumption and the arms industry expanded at the same time (9). But this long cycle is coming to an end, the magnitude reached by the military spending has become a decisive factor causing the fiscal deficit and inflation international dollar devaluation. Besides an enormous hypertrophy political weight given to state elites (civilian and military) and entrepreneurs who were embarking on a social autism unchecked. The increasing technological sophistication parallel to rising away weapons systems increasingly militarized science its potential civilian applications adversely affecting industrial competitiveness.

This separation increased between military science (devouring of funds and talents) and civilian industry reached catastrophic levels in the terminal period of the former Soviet Union now seems to be repeating history.

All this adds a seemingly unexpected event, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and indirectly the failure of the Israeli offensive in Lebanon show the operational inefficiencies of the super complex (and super expensive) art war machine put in check by enemies who operate in a decentralized and simple and inexpensive weapons. Pose a serious crisis of perception (psychological catastrophe) between the leaders of the Military Industrial Complex United States and NATO (in the history of civilizations is not the first time this occurs a phenomenon of this type).

However, the hypertrophy-crisis of militarization is closely associated (part of) the decline of the state expressed by the withdrawal of its integrative capacity (decline of social security, prevalence of elitist culture in decision-making centers, etc.. ), the degradation of infrastructure and chronic fiscal deficits and rising has led to a huge public debt. If we refer to the last four decades, fiscal surpluses are a rarity, since the 1970 deficits were growing up to early 1990 to very high levels, but Clinton was dismissed by the end of the decade with some surpluses that observed from a long-term approach appear as ephemeral events. But since the arrival of George W. Bush returned the deficit reaching record highs: 160 billion dollars in 2002, 380 billion in 2003, 320 billion in 2005 ...

Some people in the wake of all this is also presented, which

If the U.S. and Europe into recession while oil continues to rise and by the beginning of the decline in production ... the global recession is assured. All economies in crisis, falling consumption, exports falling throughout the world, falling industrial production, construction plummeting, unemployment rising around the world ...

The global recession will cause oil consumption and lower overall energy worldwide, which in normal circumstances that oil would come down in price, but the circumstances are exceptional and it turns out that global oil production will also drop, and not lack of demand but due to depletion of wells. This will cause oil prices do not fall and that the recession is over.

With minor variations the situation will remain decades and decades in a recession constant. Also do not forget that food is transported to oil and fertilizer is paid from oil and other hydrocarbons, so that food will skyrocket in price representing an increasingly larger part of the basket and leaving less and less money for other industrial products and services. It will be a throwback to an increasingly more agricultural and less industrial.

Will be the end of industrialized countries and newly industrialising countries. In 50 or 70 years everyone in a primarily agricultural economy. All Africans as now, with oil as a luxury for the rich and governments and their armies.

Definitely says Beinstein, the immensity of the disaster in progress, the most radical of breaks that can get to breed, much higher than those that caused the crisis began around 1914 (which gave birth to a long cycle of attempts to overcome capitalism and fascism, savage restructuring attempt of the bourgeois system) generates spontaneous reactions of the reality-denying ruling elites, and conservative social spaces beyond them, but the reality of the crisis is taking hold. The whole edifice of ideas, of certainty of different sign, built over more than two centuries of industrial capitalism is beginning to crack. * Ecoportal.net